Middle Tennessee Darnell Harris (0), Jaqawn Raymond (10 ) and Perrin Buford (2) celebrate as they walk off the court after winning a first-round men's college basketball game against Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament on March 18, 2016, in St. Louis. Middle Tennessee won 90-81.
According to CBS Sports' Bracket Games, 65 percent of bracketeers picked Sparty for the Final Four, which more than doubles any other team in their region.
If you had Michigan State going further than that — as 42 percent of those who filled out tournament brackets did — you're going to need a little more help. Essentially, you need to bring everyone else in your pool down with you.
If you took Michigan State all the way, though, things are looking pretty bleak. You'll probably need an out-of-nowhere champion no one in your pool picked.
This is where the size of your pool comes into play. The bigger it is, the more likely someone could score big on a wacky pick, and the less likely you are to pull off an improbable comeback.
You'll need a team to make a run to the title game practically nobody picked, preferably out of Michigan State's region, the Midwest. And you'll want someone other than Virginia, whom roughly a quarter of CBS brackets have in the Final Four.
Of course — and this almost goes without saying — you'll need to nail as many picks as you can for the rest of the tournament. Then maybe, just maybe, you'll have a chance.